College Football Playoff Selection

To start off with we will anoint the king so that we can pick the king’s subjects.  Alabama with a SAVAGE rating of 42.2 and an unblemished record is the clear king (SAVAGE predicts a team’s margin of victory versus an average team).

Now for the subjects…  Take a look at the table.  The best SAVAGE rating is Clemson with Ohio State, Oklahoma, Central Florida, and Georgia listed in order of ranking, but having similar SAVAGE ratings.  Notre Dame isn’t even in the top 10 of SAVAGE.

Strength of schedule (Avg Opponent SAVAGE) has Georgia’s opponents beating an average team by more than a touchdown with OUs opponents by a field goal.

As far as quality wins, Ohio State and Notre Dame both beat Michigan for the best wins in the group.  Georgia has 4 wins against teams that would beat an average team by greater than 10 points, but they don’t have a win versus 17 point SAVAGE teams.  Ohio State has 2 wins vs 17 point SAVAGE teams while Oklahoma has one (plus one versus 10 point SAVAGE team).  UCF and Clemson both have 2 wins versus 10 point SAVAGE teams without a 17 point SAVAGE team victory.

If two loss teams are to be included when there are several quality teams with fewer losses, then the better comparison for Georgia would be Michigan.

Based on the number of quality teams with one loss, the top teams need to have fewer than two losses.  Performance on the field (SAVAGE) is the most important factor in picking the top teams, with strength of schedule 2nd, and quality wins 3rd:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Ohio State