College Football Playoff Top 4 from SAVAGE

The SAVAGE rating system analyzes the statistical performance of each team against their opponents quality, and calculates an aggregate score that is the estimated margin of victory versus an average team.  The scoring nature of the system provides a way to pick the top 4 teams with desperate schedules.

In the SAVAGE ratings system Penn State, Alabama, Oklahoma, and Ohio State have statistically performed the best on the field across all games respectively.

Averaging the SAVAGE ratings of the top 5 victories (table below) for each team puts Oklahoma and Clemson clustered at the top with the opponents average SAVAGE rating of 17.2 & 16.5 respectively.  Ohio State and Georgia trail the top two by 5 points, and Alabama is another 3 points behind.

Ranking teams based on performance on the field (SAVAGE) and quality of wins (average of top 5 wins) with equal weighting (table below) puts Oklahoma on top and Clemson trailing by 2 points.  Ohio State, Georgia, and Alabama are essentially tied.

Even with this metric a clear #3 or #4 team isn’t available.  Therefore, judgement calls will be required on what is more important: number of losses (OSU has 2), adjacent head to head (Georgia beat a team that recently beat Alabama), performance on the field (Alabama), opponents strength (OSU and Georgia), and importance of conference champion (OSU and Georgia).   All Rankings