Send your Parents Base Jumping for the 2020 Holidays

A little tongue-and-cheek but celebrating the 2020 holidays like normal could be twice as risky as base jumping

Since I have a sports analytics algorithm and website, it is probably not shocking that I am a stats nerd and love data.  Naturally, I wanted some numbers to understand the relative risk of the holidays due to COVID-19. 

According to multiplication rule probability, the chance of fatality due to COVID-19 from attending a party of 10 in Dallas County for ages between 65 and 74 is estimated at 0.08% compared to 0.04% for Base Jumping while hospitalization is 0.8% compared to 0.3%. 

According to the database developed by Georgia Tech (1) on 10/18/2020 there is a 17% chance that someone has COVID-19 at a party of 10 people in Dallas County.  According to multiple studies (2) there is about a 17% chance of infection when masks and social distancing aren’t possible (aka eating).  According to the CDC (3) for the age range of 65-74 there is a 28.6% chance of hospitalization and 2.7% case fatality rate.  The fatality and hospitalization risk for base jumping (4) are 0.04% and 0.3%. 

The chance of fatality and hospitalization for a 45-54-year old is estimated at 0.01% and 0.6% respectively.

I am not a medical expert, and therefore, please, refer to the CDC for official information (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html). 

Reference:

  
1https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
2https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext#seccestitle140
3https://www.statista.com/chart/21173/hospitalization-icu-admission-and-fatality-rates-for-reported-coronavirus-cases/
4https://www.researchgate.net/publication/327727397_Comparison_of_the_Personality_Traits_of_Male_and_Female_BASE_Jumpers