A little tongue-and-cheek but celebrating the 2020 holidays like normal could be twice as risky as base jumping.
Since I have a sports analytics algorithm and website, it is probably not shocking that I am a stats nerd and love data. Naturally, I wanted some numbers to understand the relative risk of the holidays due to COVID-19.
According to multiplication rule probability, the chance of fatality due to COVID-19 from attending a party of 10 in Dallas County for ages between 65 and 74 is estimated at 0.08% compared to 0.04% for Base Jumping while hospitalization is 0.8% compared to 0.3%.
According to the database developed by Georgia Tech (1) on 10/18/2020 there is a 17% chance that someone has COVID-19 at a party of 10 people in Dallas County. According to multiple studies (2) there is about a 17% chance of infection when masks and social distancing aren’t possible (aka eating). According to the CDC (3) for the age range of 65-74 there is a 28.6% chance of hospitalization and 2.7% case fatality rate. The fatality and hospitalization risk for base jumping (4) are 0.04% and 0.3%.
The chance of fatality and hospitalization for a 45-54-year old is estimated at 0.01% and 0.6% respectively.
I am not a medical expert, and therefore, please, refer to the CDC for official information (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nCoV/index.html).
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